EV: Electric Vehicles The Obvious Future
By D. S. Mitchell
*”Adoption of a new technology like EV’s (electric vehicles) may seem slow or look like it’s never going to happen, until it passes a threshold… and then it just takes off.” Reda Cherif for the International Monetary Fund
Slashing EPA Annual Budget by Over 30%
When Trump won the 2016 presidential election I knew the attack on the environment would move forward like a bulldozer in a butterfly garden. In Trump’s first year in office he pulled the United States out of the landmark Paris climate deal, paving the way for the continued reckless burning of fossil fuels. The Paris Climate Accord is non-binding on signers, but focuses on a global effort to hold the Earth’s temperature rise to fewer than two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures. The consequences of failing to limit greenhouses gases and thereby their destructive effects is a future most of us do not want to imagine.
High Jacking the Mission of the EPA
In March of 2018, Trump proposed slashing the EPA annual budget by over 30%. Since 2017 the EPA has lost more than 700 employees, including 200 scientists. Meanwhile the disgraced and the now thank God departed, Scott Pruitt, wasted Agency money on a 24 hour security detail, expensive air travel, and sound proof booths for his office. Rather than protect the environment and work with the world to limit green house gas production this administration wants to subsidize coal, and ramp up oil exploration in previously protected wilderness areas and vulnerable off-shore sites.
EV Promises Reduced Air Pollution
Despite the bad news on so many U.S. environmental fronts there is good news in the automobile industry. Automobile manufacturer’s world-wide are committing to the EV. They see the handwriting on the wall. The governments of Europe, China, and India are committed to reducing air pollution. Part of that vision will be enabled by electric vehicles. The mass acceptance of the EV will consequently cut the production of fossil fuels and their consumption. Perhaps that is the reason coal, and gas producers are in such a hurry to mine and pump fuel reserves while they still have an opportunity. Because they, more than any other industry, recognizes the world is changing.
Horse and Buggy Days
There is a growing understanding that gas and diesel-powered vehicles will soon join the horse and buggy, and the dial telephone. New studies support a rapid acceleration process and a gathering momentum of the coming EV tsunami. Surprising as it may seem The International Monetary Fund and Georgetown University predicts that more than 90% of all passenger vehicles in the U.S., Canada, Europe and other wealthy industrialized countries will be EV by 2040. Some studies are even more bullish than the IMF projections. In fact, there are predictions that by 2030, ninety percent of all U.S. vehicles will be EV. That is a mere 12 years away.
Rethinking Transportation
*Tony Seba, a world recognized lecturer and Stanford economist believes the EV revolution could come as fast as the 2020’s, and it will show a changing urban environment. Seba and others project that 95% of all passenger miles will be in autonomous electric vehicles by 2030. Seba projections are based on sharply falling battery costs and the fact that EV are easier to manufacture and maintain-only 20 moving parts, versus 2000 for gasoline or diesel vehicles. Furthermore, Seba believes that the majority of vehicles will be owned by transportation companies, not people.
Driverless Future
Commercial fleets are clamoring for EV’s, especially self-driving ones. Eliminating drivers will generate enormous savings for UPS, FedEx, Amazon, Uber and Lyft. All over the country, in Pittsburgh, Phoenix and Boston and world-wide, in Singapore, Dubai, and China, self-driving taxis and commercial vehicles are being tested.
EV’s
Cost is what will remake transportation in America, according to most experts. EV’s are four times more energy-efficient than their gas counterparts. Cheaper to fuel and autonomous makes it even better. According to AAA, owning and operating a gas-powered vehicle costs close to $10,000 per year when only driven 15,ooo miles. As a reminder, that vehicle spends 95% of its time parked! Not a particularly wise use of a family’s dwindling income. Experts expect with the autonomous EV we will see a reduction of at least 200 million passenger cars on American highways by 2030. Instead of spending that $10,000 on transportation a family will spend around $1,000, because instead of owning a car, the citizen will have access to millions of self-driving vehicles that can be accessed by anyone with a phone app and they will be able to go anywhere for pennies vs dollars.
The Race is On
EV’s are at the forefront of an emerging transportation evolution. World automakers are now embracing the electric automobile. Big companies are accepting the new future. Sweden’s Volvo Car Group has pledged to be producing only electrified models, hybrids and fully battery-powered, by 2019. VW has committed to becoming the world leader in electrical vehicles by 2025. Jaguar and Land Rover will convert to all-electric in 2020.
Governments Aim To Ban Gas and Diesel Fueled Vehicles
It isn’t just auto manufacturer’s. Governments are joining in. Norway intends to ban fossil fuel consuming cars and vans by 2025. The U.K., Netherlands, and France have committed to end fossil fueled vehicles by 2040. Germany is studying the matter, but is expected to enact a similar ban. China, the world’s largest car market announced it too will ban gasoline and diesel vehicles, a target date for the ban as yet, unknown. Chinese consumers have more than 40 different electrical vehicles available, most are built by Chinese companies. India expects the market to naturally shift to EV by 2030-even if there is no government intervention because they are cleaner, quieter, longer-lasting and will cost less. The US auto makers will need to get on board the EV revolution, or they will be left behind.
Expected Benefits
A massive switch to EV’s could help clean the air, slow the pace of climate disruption and over time end the era of the internal fossil fuel burning combustion engine. Of the one billion cars registered on the roads worldwide, only two million are EV. One million of the two million EV’s are in China. If EV’s hit that desired threshold and are like the car to the horse and buggy it could cut oil use by 21 million barrels a day and cut CO2 emissions by 3.2 billion tons a year. That is equal to 60% of all current U.S. emissions. The transfer from horse to car happened in a period of 10-12 years. That early 20th century transition faced many more hurdles than going from a gas-powered vehicle to an EV.
Choosing Green
Corporate polluters like big oil, and multi-national conglomerates like Koch Industries are known to have spread misinformation about EV. These companies have worked over the years, behind the scenes to under mine the acceptance of the EV. Their actions are understandable given that a switch to electric vehicles will lead to less oil use and substantially less profit. However, there is a forming consensus that we must change course in a big way, and the world is closing its ears to the misinformation and propaganda of the polluters and profiteers.
EV Basics
1.) Purchase Price: Government subsidies to off-set the higher sticker cost of an EV versus an ICE (internal combustion engine) may be in danger of being eliminated by the Trump administration. Currently, tax rebates and auto maker incentives provide about $7,500 toward the purchase price of an EV. Canada has eliminated their tax credits and it is expected that the Trump administration will make a move to eliminate such benefits. However, EV costs are continuing to drop, and Bloomberg has predicted that EV battery costs will halve by 2025. At which point electric and gas vehicles should be at price parity.
2.) EV Home Charging: Currently, average charging time is four to six hours, with most charging taking place at home, usually overnight. *You will need to have an electrician install a dedicated 240 volt garage charger. The average cost for such installation is about $1,000.
3.) EV Charging on the Road: There are more than 20,000 EV public charging stations across Canada and the United States. More than half are free to use. Go to Alternative Fuels Data Center for a map of EV charging stations across the United States.
4.) How Far Can I Go On A Charge?: The best EV can go 200 miles on a charge. The range is increasing steadily but will probably top off at 300 miles to a charge. To increase mileage per charge would need a heavier, more expensive battery. In addition to higher cost, bigger batteries require longer charge times. Keep in mind, the average person drives less than fifty miles a day.
5.) Is the Electricity Green: When charging your EV at a charging station you will not know if the electricity is the renewable generation. Power companies draw electricity from the grid and then pool it. That power originates from many sources. If you want to be sure you are driving with “clean juice” you will need to generate it yourself at home, via roof top solar panels.
6.) Pure Battery, Hybrid or Plug-In Hybrid?: Hybrids use electric motors to increase overall fuel efficiency and never need a plug-in. Plug-in hybrids go 30-40 miles on battery power alone, and 300 miles or more on gas. The pure battery EV version is expected to dominate the market within a relatively short time and is the goal.
Sources:
Jim Motavalli, EDF Solutions (Vol #49 Fall 2018)
Stephen Leahy, Today magazine 9/13/2017
*Reda Cherif, International Monetary Fund
*Tony Seba, Stanford economist
U.S. Highway Department
U.S. Census Bureau
