Afghanistan, Now And Forever?

Afghanistan:

Now And Forever?

D. S. Mitchell

President Trump has just embraced 16 years of war in Afghanistan and promised the American people more of the same: with a new troop build up, diplomatic pressure on Pakistan and outreach to the Taliban to entice them to the negotiating table.  These are all old familiar strategies used by his two predecessors with no success.

Donald Trump, several years ago advised then President Obama, to get the hell out of Afghanistan and spend time and resources rebuilding America. After months of deliberations with his generals Trump has been persuaded to stick with a conflict that he has vocally opposed in the past. In fact, during the campaign Trump claimed he would wind down America’s foreign wars.

Trump and his military team believe that with the Afghanistan government losing large sections of the country that the U.S. has no choice, but to dig in.  Trump reiterated that there would be no publicized withdrawal time table, as there had been with President Obama. An issue that Obama has been criticized for.

Trump’s announcement came Monday night in a 26 minute televised  address to the nation from Fort Meyers, VA.   There was a sense of bravado to his comments, one of those, “I got this” as he proclaimed “In the end, we will win.”

Trump is the third president to struggle with the Afghanistan problem. In 2001 George Bush sent special forces into Afghanistan to rout the Taliban government and track down al-Quida terrorists. Since that first commitment, actions in Afghanistan by the U.S. has cost the American people $715,ooo,000,000, 2,400 lives and another 20,000 wounded in a 16 year adventure in foreign occupation. A very heavy price for such humble results.

Afghanistan is a country besieged by ethnic, religious, cultural and tribal factions that have blocked foreign armies for millennia. Trump indicated in his address to the nation that the mission was not to re-take territory, but rather the focus would be on training Afghan Special Forces and the Afghan regular army.

In my opinion, the announcement of the troop build up was a lame effort to redirect the conversation from Charlottesville, VA.  and his own schizophrenic behaviors of the last week, to  a topic that has in the past earned him a bump in the polls, bomb strikes.

Trump has surrounded himself with generals.  He appears to defer, in some instances, to their ability.  The warning in this case would be, the military will always offer military solutions and promise victory, that’s what they are trained to do. The basic truth is that there will be no victory for the United States in Afghanistan because there is no sustainable government in place that can administer the country, and be an ally to the U.S.

Trump is vowing to “win” what seems to be an unwinnable war.  I don’t want us there, just to “win” with no specification of troop numbers, strategy, or time commitment.  Trump pointedly declined to show how many more troops will be dispatched to extend the longest war in U.S. history.  Trump indicated it would no longer be a “time based” war, but rather a “result based” conflict.

Trump indicated that Secretary of Defense, James Mattis has been authorized to bring the troop strength to the desired level, “target the terrorist and criminal networks that sow violence and chaos throughout Afghanistan.” Trump further emphasized that “micromanagement from Washington, D. C. does not win wars.”

Trump insists on the necessity of a “regional strategy” that addresses the neighboring countries of the area such as Pakistan who Trump claimed has been “harboring elements of the Taliban,” and in fact, were “agents of chaos, violence and terror.”

Pakistan and the United States have had a long but rocky alliance. After 2001, Pakistan emerged as a key U.S. staging area and supply route to overthrow the terrorists in Afghanistan, primarily Taliban and al-Queda.

Pakistan’s Intel Service is widely suspected of maintaining close ties to the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network.  U.S.– Pakistan relations have been strained since the 2011 raid by U.S. Navy Seals into Pakistani territory that killed Osama Bin Laden. Despite the tensions Pakistan is a major player in Afghanistan and surely the United States will make no progress without Pakistan’s co-operation.

While committing America to “work with the Afghan government” Trump warned, “as long as we see determination and progress. However, our commitment is not unlimited and our support is not a blank check.”

He did not offer how progress would be measured, nor did he explain how his newly announced strategy was different from that of Bush or Obama.  Trump specifically declined to talk about numbers of troops, or telegraph military moves in advance;  He hinted that he was embracing the proposed  4,000 troop request, which would bring U.S. military presence in Afghanistan to an estimated 8,000 troops.

My neighbor said, “Trump’s a fool, he should just tell the Taliban chieftains the hell hole is all theirs.”

Like my neighbor I also feel the only practical solution,  is withdrawal.  If the Taliban leaders stall like the North Vietnamese, they will eventually come to the bargaining table  I suspect that Trump will, just like Nixon before him, declare ‘peace with honor’ and high-tail it back home.

Withdrawal does not seem to be on the military radar at the moment, however. Lyndon Johnson got sucked into the Vietnam War a brigade at a time, so to speak. Trump’s natural personality is to make a decision and double down, whether right, or wrong.  Johnson in the Vietnam situation took the losses personally and kept investing more men, money and munitions to a losing struggle, thinking that with just a few more lives we could “win” in Vietnam. Afghanistan could become a quagmire for Trump just as Vietnam was for President Lyndon Johnson.

My underlying concern is that Trump believes his tough twittering will improve his poll ratings.  Him bullying Pakistan is probably not helpful. Destabilization of the region is predictable if the Administration can’t get “peace with honor,” and I imagine that the governments of the region will attempt to appear co-operative while standing at a distance. Extending the war and destabilizing governments are all truly frightening, and a real possibility in this war-torn and chaotic region.

I have a college degree, but I am no expert in foreign policy. I read the newspapers and watch television, but I am no military strategist.  I am however, someone who thinks that history is a good teacher and 16 years has taught us that invaders from far away will eventually leave, or they will be dispelled by local military forces.  Simply put, the United States does not have the capacity for a full-time war that far from home. No matter how long we stay, there will be no “win” for the United States in Afghanistan.

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