Dark Jester
T. K. McNeil
The Trump trunk of disgusting pronouncements is so full that it is damn near impossible to pull out any one thing President Trump has said in the first 630 plus days of his term that could lead to his undoing. There is just so much to choose from! Although politics is famously unpredictable, his chestnut about how “trade wars are good and easy to win” just might be the spark that incinerates his presidency. Trade wars and tariffs have brought down other administrations.
Puffing And Blustering To Make MAGA
In addition to being laughably incorrect by any logical standard-countries who hate each other (France and Germany for instance) regularly enter into flawed but necessary trade agreements, precisely because trade wars are universally recognized as the greater of the two evils. On the face of it Trump’s election campaign was about the re-invigoration of the American economy, but truly it was a campaign to convince US voters the world image of the United States was in tatters. MAGA is all about the Trump voter self-image.The MAGA hat was like Popeye’s can of spinach, it puffed up the wearer’s ego just like spinach puffed up Popeye’s muscles.
Bears and Dragons
Despite common wisdom, economic forces are something governments actually have little direct control over. Most governments do little more than prepare for when the shit hits the fan, which it invariably does. This does not stop the voting public from blaming or praising politicians for the current economic situation. Given the fuss Trump made about the American economy and how he was the only one who could “save” the situation, it will look pretty bad for him if the economy tanks because of trade tariffs. Trump has spent the last year poking and taunting both the Polar Bear and the Red Dragon.
Does Canada Need US Trade?
Canada doesn’t really need to trade with the United States and considering the amount of vital materials that are Canadian in origin, Trump’s bluster may backfire. If Trump wants to stay in office he had better stop the rough trade talk. Second-term election upset may be on the horizon if inflation starts effecting the rural and “rust belt” voter.
Don’t let Canada’s maple syrup and flannel reputation fool you. Beneath the veneer of northern civility is Canadian culture; deeply European, descended from French and British immigrants. The steely folks of the North know how to plan for the future, and trade with a cantankerous United States may no longer be desirable .
USMCA And CETA
In addition to getting a blustering Trump to relent and let them in on USMCA under quite acceptable terms, Canada is closing in on a trade deal with the European Economic Bloc. Wait, didn’t USMCA have a clause that any future trade agreements be approved by all three member nations? Yes, but it wasn’t grandfathered and negotiations on CETA (Canada European Trade Agreement) started before Trump began his presidential run.
The Red Dragon is also vigorously fighting back. I presume China, like Canada, will look elsewhere for favorable new trade deals. A blustering Trump and his red cap wearing supporters may find themselves shut out of lucrative trading agreements.
