Unemployment Numbers Won’t Help In 2020

Unemployment Numbers Won’t Help In 2020

by James Moore

Not Done Yet

The 2018 Midterms are over.  Thank God!  Take a deep breath because the race for the White House starts right about now.  For Trump, this could spell trouble. For the first time in a long while the unemployment numbers were not a factor in the 2018 Midterms and may not be a factor in the 2020 national election.

Unemployment Lie 

The current unemployment numbers as released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics show a low 3.7 percent unemployment rate.  Trump has used this low rate to blow his own horn.  He also claims he has turned the economy around.  It’s a lie.  Keep in mind, the jobless rate has fallen at a consistent clip since January of 2010. Trump knows he inherited an economic turnaround of sorts, but it has always been a modest one at best.  The fact is, full-time jobs just are not what they use to be.  Depending on the definition one uses, there is a serious under-employment problem plaguing the nation.

Under-Employed vs. Unemployed 

There was a time when low unemployment meant most of the working class were working at jobs that paid a livable wage.  Today, many of the new jobs created are nothing more than low paying service jobs that need few skills. American wages still lag where they were before the crash of 2008. Complicate that with the increase cost of health care, the out sourcing of labor overseas, large tax cuts for the 1% without any expectation of them creating real jobs, and the result is millions of Americans do not earn enough money to live on. More workers today are forced to work a second and even a third job, just to pay their bills.  The result is that Americans are working more, have less money to spend, and no time to enjoy what they do make.

Real Numbers 45 Doesn’t Want Us to Know

In 2012, unemployment was at 8.1 percent.  However, when people who were working multiple jobs or who had stopped looking all together were factored in, the under-employment rate rose to 14.7%. * Last year, that rate was down to 12.5% even though unemployment was down to around 4%. ** In 2012, the total number of under-employed Americans was 23.1 million and as recently as 2016, the Chicago Tribune reported nearly half of U.S. workers considered themselves under-employed.

A Third of College Graduates Are Under-Employed

While half of the nation being under employed may seem a bit high, the New York Federal Reserve Bank put under employment for all college graduated American between the ages of 22 and 65 at 33 percent. That figure jumps to 44% for college grads between the ages of 22 and 27 as recently as October of this year.

The Military Industrial Complex 

The truth is, most of the jobs he is creating are in the military industry. Why?  I believe, it is because he wants to create a situation that allows him to go to war; so that our next election will be a referendum for him as a war-time president and against all those unpatriotic Democrats. After all, his wall won’t be built, racism will not be stamped, or in his case stomped, out, and the economy will be lack luster. Low unemployment numbers will not satisfy voters when their full-time jobs are not enough to pay the bills in 2020.

Education Deserves Blame Too 

As a retired teacher, I can tell you our public schools have played a huge role in adding to our under-employment problems.  Despite low unemployment numbers, millions of trades jobs sit unfilled. Schools have sold college as the only answer to a successful life.  This brainwashing of our kids has led to serious problems. Let me repeat, college is not the only or best road to a successful work life.  It is all lies. There are many fine trade jobs that our citizens could be trained for. It’s time we admit that college is not the end-all for every American.

Ending Up Somewhere Different Than Planned 

Three-fourths of college grads end up in a career that has nothing to do with their major field of study. Even if they don’t use their degree they are left with a huge student loan debt.  Learning a trade and taking one of those decent to well-paying trade jobs that now go unfilled would have been a better option. If they had chosen that option they would not be starting their career behind the financial eight ball. They would have more years of total earnings to fund their retirement, and our middle class would be growing, not shrinking. They would also not find themselves in the mix of unemployment numbers at a time when decent paying jobs for college graduates are a rarity.

Millennials Aren’t Buying It 

We as a nation sold the Millennials a bill of goods that led them to take on huge college debt. Those Millennials are done buying into norms. If a college education won’t land them jobs within their field of study, why kill themselves working their butts off?  Instead, they have turned their focus toward our data driven world and held leaders accountable for their lies.  They will push hard to elect any person of any color, religion, or gender identity if they will support their progressive agenda.  The Millennial’s refusal to accept jobs below their skill level may never show up in unemployment numbers because they have decided to forge a different path.

A Big Voting Block Emerging

Millennials know the unemployment numbers are nothing more than a shell game and they are not falling for the old politics of fear and blanket promises.  They want change that will reshape the direction of this nation.  Millennials are not socialists who want everything for free.  They know they have the voting numbers and that power emboldens them. As these young people flex their political muscle I believe they won’t hesitate to go after the top one percent.

The Military Economy 

How will progressives bring down the cost of college and medical care while creating jobs that reflect the level of skill people have?  For one, they will elect leaders who will cut the largest government waste they see, which means we can expect to see a smaller military budget.  Fewer, smaller wars? Fewer overseas bases? For a them, it is better that the unemployment numbers show a shrinking military and not the average worker’s earning power. The cost of a smaller army and fewer military interventions will  leave more money to improve the lives of the average American, a fact understood by the younger voter.

And The 1%

These newly empowered voters will not hesitate to levy higher taxes on the 1%. Decent free public education will be a priority. Health care, a system of safety net programs that offer dignity not poverty for the most vulnerable in society will be more important for the society than cementing the enrichment of a tiny group of billionaires. The 1% will be required to pay their fair share toward the betterment of the new society. You see, when you create a generation that ends up smarter than the ruling class and knows how to rely on data more than politics, you end up with change.

The Future Is Now

Jobs world-wide lost to robots by 2040 will exceed eight hundred million. A world filled with robots who need no pay, no benefits, and limited human supervision.  The effect of Artificial Intelligence on future jobs is anybody’s guess. It won’t just be menial jobs at fast food restaurants or the auto industry that kill job opportunities for Americans.  What the computer age did to my generation, robots will do to our grand kids. The income gap will continue to rise if we cannot find ways to create jobs that pay livable wages.

An Essential Living Wage

Either unemployment numbers will remain high or we will move toward a more socialized economic system. One suggestion is that each adult receive an essential monthly living allowance. Is this the American dream we seek? Is all we have to offer the world is our military might in exchange for goods and services from other nations? For now, the younger generation is not willing to admit defeat. They want their shot at turning this nation around and based on the under-employment problem we have, it would not be wise for Mr. Trump to lay claim to having turned our economy around.

Thank you, Trump. 

As someone who admittedly cannot stand Trump the person, or Trump the president, I want to thank him.  The high school educated, middle to older white men and women that form the Trump base are not enough. This coalition related to Trump’s brand of hate and fear is not the coalition that will win the 2020 election. The young are angry.  They will not longer be subject to the values of a near dead generation. They are ready to take over the reins of power. The Millennials are now 25-40 years old. Their time has arrived.

A Dissatisfied Youth Has Grown Up

The dissatisfied youth has become dissatisfied adults, damn near middle-aged adults, who will not be swayed by low unemployment numbers.  They rely on facts.  Their every day experience proves  that available full-time jobs are not enough to live on. It is now time for them to create an economy and a country where a job once again provides a living wage, or face that many citizens will need supplemental income paid by the government. The other option is a nation of  poverty and tent cities. If this future is scaring the crap out of some old farts, so be it. Millennial anger and disappointment will trump the likes of Mr. Trump.

*New Geography, October 10, 2013                                                                                                                          ** Stastista, July, 2017