HANLON’S RAZOR:
CUTTING THROUGH THE HYPE
By Trevor K. McNeil
A “culture war” by American definition implies a conflict between those values considered traditionalist or conservative and those considered progressive or liberal. It is most obvious when urban and rural American values come into clear conflict–T. K. McNeil
Origins
Little is known about the originator of Hanlon’s Razor, Robert J. Hanlon. To the point that it came to be thought that it might have been a misspelling of the famous science fiction author Robert J. Heinlein. Although this similarity proved to be purely coincidental. Originally composed as an entry for a writing contest based on the largely satirical “Murphy’s Law”. An axiom which states that anything that can go wrong invariably will. Though, Hanlon’s philosophy is generally more optimistic. Showing a modicum of faith in human nature. Attributing seeming misconduct to human frailty and incompetence rather than inherent cruelty.
Hanlon’s Razor
Much of the rhetoric based on gross exaggerations may not be intentional manipulations of the truth. Hanlon’s Razor states, A truth most clearly expressed in the political aphorism known as Hanlon’s Razor. Hanlon’s Razor states, “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence.” Or as former British press secretary Bernard Ingham rephrased it: “Cock-up (screw up) before conspiracy.”
Hope In Odd Places
When you consider Hanlon’s Razor, today’s politics do not have to be this way. Politics have become objectively more fraught but largely based on a false premise. That the opposition, as defined by those who disagree, are acting with malice. It is difficult to believe otherwise, given the violence involved. Though violence, even fatal violence, does not always come from a place of malice. Violence can be enacted out of a sense of righteousness and even positive intention. Especially when enacted against a perceived enemy.
Cold Civil War
America is in the throws of a Culture War. Since we don’t apply Hanlon’s Razor, polling statistics show a gap between Democrats and Republicans unseen since the American Civil War. Slowly moving ever further away from the deceptively bipartisan past beginning in the 1920-1930’s.
Conservative Democrats & Liberal Republicans
It was a time when “conservative Democrat” and “liberal Republican” were generally understood and popularly used terms. The “conservative Democrat” was most often from the south in pre-1965 politics. Self-defined liberal Franklin Delano Roosevelt and his 1933 “New Deal” put together an unlikely coalition, by today’s standards, that of southern whites, labor unions, minorities, and liberal/intellectuals. Hanlon’s Razor allowed different viewpoints to come together during a decade of national tumult.
Things Get Ugly
After the Civil Rights legislation of the mid 1960’s the assumption became that the opposition was giving away the farm. Due to the rise of the civil rights movement, southern white voting block broke to the Republicans in the manifestation of the GOP’s “southern plan”. Instead of Hanlon’s Razor assuming that some of the transitional legislation was unintentionally flawed, the people assumed that America no longer cared.
It Gets Uglier
But it wasn’t until the 1990’s when any remaining gentility in American politics died, sending Hanlon’s Razor out the window. Republican’s “Contract with America” declared war on anything liberal, focused on less regulation, tax cuts, term limits, and balanced budgets.
Actual Malice
The move toward the right was led by chaos creator extraordinaire, Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. Before his retirement, Newt was sanctioned by the House of Representatives. He was fined $300,000 for election fraud and ethics violations. He left the House in 1999. However, Hanlon’s Razor took a blow because sometimes it really is malice.
Violence Increase
A protester at a Milo Yiannopoulos event in Seattle was shot in the stomach, surviving only because of immediate medical attention and extensive surgery. Then there was the wide-spread civil disobedience in Berkeley and several potentially fatal bludgeoning attacks with a bike-lock. 2018 was not much better. All of these situations assume malice rather than the Hanlon’s Razor’s assumption that these events were never planned to incite violence.
Someone Died
We need to apply Hanlon’s Razor now before things get out of hand. While there is not yet open combat, there have been fatalities, beginning with the death of Heather Heyer at the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, VA in 2017.
Mad Bomber
The worst incident on the civilian front was the mailing of several improvised explosives, targeting key figures and supporters in the Democratic Party. The bomber completely forgot Hanlon’s Razor, listened to the rhetoric and assumed the worst. Considering the number of pipe bombs sent, it is a freak occurrence that no one was hurt or killed. Just a few days ago a US Coast Guard Lieutenant was arrested for plotting the mass killing of liberals, starting with prominent national Democrats.
Rhetoric of Malice
Many link the attacks to rhetoric on the part of President Donald Trump. All of the intended targets being individuals and organizations directly attacked and vilified by the president. Including individuals employed by CNN, not long after statements the President made defining the entirety of the American news media (except perhaps FoxNews and Breitbart) as an “enemy of the people.” Hanlon’s Razor this time does reveal malice.
Elephant in the Room
As I just discussed, Hanlon’s Razor does not apply to President Trump. At least not as an individual. On paper he could appear like a textbook case. No political experience what so ever. A well documented history of tax fraud. A reputation as one of the most unscrupulous businessmen of the 1980’s. As well as a traditional sexist with a self admitted history of groping women. None of which is sufficiently accounted for by incompetence, or even stupidity, as a slightly altered form of Hanlon’s Razor states.
Trump is Textbook Narcissist
Given the consistent and repeated nature of such conduct. Appeals to inexperience or simply not knowing better have little strength. There comes a point when ignorance becomes willful and no longer comes under the incompetence section of Hanlon’s Razor. Rather than seemingly malicious conduct being the product of incompetence or outright stupidity, he comes off as unprofessional and inappropriate because of an essentially narcissistic and malicious attitude. As evidenced by more than one psychologist stating that they believe Trump is a textbook narcissist.
Twist of Fate
The opposite of this in general, as well as in terms of Hanlon’s Razor, is Jimmy Carter. A genuinely decent person, unsuited to office not because of malice but complete lack of it. He was simply not mean enough to do what was sometimes required as a head of state. Such a position requiring a delicate balance of cold pragmatism and genuine diplomacy.
Definition of Incompetence
A prime example of Hanlon’s Razor, particularly in terms of incompetence, is Ulysses S. Grant. A brilliant tactician, Secretary of War under both Andrew Jackson and Abraham Lincoln and a West Point alumnus, Grant was far from a stupid man. Though being well suited to one job does not mean you are competent do do another. Grant was a soldier through and through. He coasted into office based almost entirely on his record as a Civil War general. As well as being one of the people most credited with restoring the Union. Grant served a single term. Additionally, historians rank him as one of the worst presidents in history in terms of his ability to do the job.
Lame Duck
In the present century, the best example of Hanlon’s Razor, particularly as it applies to stupidity, is George W. Bush. While he made statements that were not true, he was not a liar. Lying requires knowing what the truth is and intentionally manipulating it. George W. was simply to simple and literal to be able to do this.
Voiced Plans of Others
His speeches were written by others and he said basically what he was told to say. He was surrounded by known liars. Unfortunately George W. Bush was foolish enough to choose Dick Cheney for his Vice President which led to the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan. At least Hanlon’s Razor saves him from a legacy of malice.
Puppet or Duck
This is not to say Bush was a good president. He was in many ways the very definition of incompetent and unfit for office. Though, As Hanlon’s Razor clearly states, this does not make him actively malicious or even particularly cunning. The traits attributed to George W. made him a dummy at best and a puppet at worst. In the case of Ronald Reagan we now know he was struggling with dementia. We will never know if important national decisions being made by a man with a shriveling grasp on reality, or by right wing insiders pushing a more malicious agenda. So, the question must be asked. Were both men more literal and manipulated than malignantly evil?
Conclusion
Let’s all try to remember to apply Hanlon’s Razor to your daily life and politics. Probably the average person wearing a “Make America Great Again” hat believes that is exactly what they and Trump are doing. In the end, there will be a cost to Trump’s presidency. There will be a cost to pay; and in politics that cost usually is borne by the American people.
