OPINION:
Democrats Face Tough Battle In 2022 Mid-terms
OPINION:
Democrats Face Tough Battle In 2022 Mid-terms
The U.S. mid-term elections are less than nine months away. According to experts, painful political fallout is coming for the Democrats. Currently, the Democrats have a very small majority in the House, control the presidency, while a “fluid” position exists in the Senate. The 2022 midterm elections are crucial, because they’ll determine if Mitch McConnell “gridlock politics’ returns or not.
By D. S. Mitchell
Poll Ratings Drop
Presidential approval ratings have dipped to dismal levels. The causes are many. The slow, painful, public assassination of the social portion of the Build Back Better by enemy insiders, Sinema and Manchin was painful to watch on cable news. Biden’s persistent claim that he is a uniter, a consensus builder, blew up in his face when he and his team could not deliver their own caucus; a terrible embarrassment.
COVID Hysteria
The on-going COVID pandemic is driving normal people insane. You see it everywhere, in interactions between customers and clerks, between cops and citizens, between voters and officials. The anger is palpable. Besides anger; there is depression, alcoholism, drug addiction, rage-on-a-plane-madness, and of course, homicide, and suicide.
Desperate Means
I think there is growing proof that the fabric of civil society, worldwide, is coming apart. The isolation, the restrictions, mask mandates, no mask mandate, vaccinate, don’t vax, the misinformation, the fear, the death, social media experts in white coats criminalizing their profession, have overwhelmed us all. People are ready to blame anyone for their troubles, all they need is someone with a megaphone to incite the crowd. A dangerous situation.
History Predicts
The 2022 mid-terms are just around the corner and historically the party out of power wins big, usually taking control of the legislative branch and paralyzing the president of an opposing party. With the wild Q-anon rhetoric and Trump flags waving, I fear a Republican takeover is likely. A fired up base will vote, and that’s what it looks like we have on the right. Anger and agitation, no plan, just political quackery and unhinged culture warfare led by the emasculated Putin lover, Tucker Carlson, and caustic and frozen faced, Laura . . . whatshername.
Usually Complex
It is natural for people to look for a scapegoat, it is human nature, to look for a simple explanation; sadly the answers are usually complex, a lot more than “toss the bum out,” or “economics for idiots” philosophy. Understanding that reality doesn’t change the fact that off year elections are historically hard on the party in power. and as the Republicans pound on a pantheon of issues the Dems face an uphill battle in November 2022. According to experts, consumer confidence (voter confidence) is fickle, often based on perception rather than reality.
Good Numbers
Recent economic news has been rousingly good, some champagne cork highs, however most people on the street see higher meat prices, empty shelves, and interpret that as evidence of a bad economy. In fact there is a red hot economy plagued with supply chain issues snarling up ports from Hong Kong to Ottawa, employee shortages, protests, and raw material shortages. Consumers however, see an alarming 7.9% inflation rate in 2022. The highest increase in forty years. The average guy measures how good things are going by how much gas is at the pump and how much is his monthly grocery bill. Democrats, Joe Biden in particular, needs to start chest pounding about the things accomplished but not yet visible to the public.
Gloomy Outlook
Consumer confidence is declining due to concerns over inflation. Believe it or not, inflation worldwide is much worse than what we are experiencing in the U.S. However, fresh opinion surveys reveal that the American electorate is gloomy about the current US economy. The Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) from the University of Michigan, which assesses public sentiment on America’s economic well-being, fell to 66.2 points in November. This places the index at the lowest point since the 2008 stock market crash, commonly known as the Great Recession.
It’s About Ratings, Stupid
Historical data indicates that national elections in the United States are primarily influenced by voters’ assessment of the sitting president’s performance on the economy. President Biden’s approval ratings have fallen significantly since taking office in January. His first approval rating was 57% in January, and ten-month later, it had declined to 42%, a 15-point decline. Recent polls have shown dips below 40%. Incumbent presidents have typically needed support of at least 50% of the electorate to win a second term.
Consumer Confidence
Reality isn’t always reflected in what voters think, but how the voters feel about the economy are. Those emotions are crucial drivers of presidential approval. Consumer confidence and presidential approval move together in a dynamic equilibrium over time. Quite simply this means they rise and fall together. The long-run relationship can be influenced in the short run by unplanned events or shocks of different kinds. Presently, the unemployment rate is at an all-time low while inflation has hit heights unseen since the 1970’s. Biden’s approval has declined as inflation as burgeoned..
Bush Crash And Burn
After a contentious 2000 election President George W. Bush started his presidency with a stain on the credibility of his election. However, after 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center, Americans rallied around the flag, and supported the president. This trend was witnessed again at the beginning of the Iraq War. However, Bush’s poll numbers plummeted with the September 2008 financial collapse. The Great Recession tarnished the reputation of the Republicans for proper and prudent financial management, paving the way for Barack Obama to take the presidency for the Dems in 2008.
Signs Of Recovery
The Biden administration has big spending plans to revive the US economy as we come out of COVID restrictions. It is expected that the spending plans will raise the GDP by over 5% from 2022 to 2024. This is also expected to create a lasting impact on the economy by increasing labor force participation and productivity. It’s projected that inflation will fall to 2.2% by the end of 2022. Most experts see the inflation problem as temporary directly related to the unprecedented effects of the Pandemic. The Federal Reserve is likely to begin raising the interest rates. The risk of course it that such action could stall the economic recovery.
Is It Signed, Sealed, and Delivered?
The good news for the Democrats is that the unemployment rate is declining rapidly as the economy recovers from the massive Covid-19 crisis shock. The jobless rate stood at 6.3% in January 2021 and fell to 4.2% by the end of the same year. There is huge consumer demand. The investment markets seem solid. If these trends continue, they will boost the presidential approval, and the Democrats’ prospects will be bolstered in the 2022 midterm elections. Unfortunately, time is of the essence and this administration seems to be running away from their successes rather than embracing them. My new favorite ending to most stories is; time will tell . . .
