Russian Mercenary Drama in Mali
Russian Mercenary Drama in Mali
By Nicholas Waithaka and D. S. Mitchell
Increasing Instability in Mali
Mali has been a hotbed of political unrest for decades, making it vulnerable to external interference from players like Russia and China. Over the past few months, reports indicate that the head of Mali’s military junta, Colonel Assimi Goita, has negotiated a deal that would bring approximately 1,000 mercenaries from the Wagner Group into the country. Mali has had escalating security and political problems, but a turn to international paramilitary actors may become the proverbial slippery slope.
A Spiderweb Of Interference
The Wagner group, first appeared in Ukraine in 2014, where it assisted the Russian military in the annexation of Crimea. Since then, a spiderweb of paramilitaries, mercenary organizations, and businesses interestingly linked to Vladimir Putin and Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin have emerged under the general name; the Wagner Group.
Encouraging Instability
In Syria the Wagner Group supported embattled President Bashar al-Assad while securing a foothold in the country’s energy sector. In other unstable areas around the world such as Libya, Sudan, Madagascar, Mozambique and now Mali, a Russian paramilitary group is providing military support to unpopular, and undemocratic governments. The Wagner Group has become a shorthand name for a mostly opaque and extensive network of mercenary services. In fact, U.S. intelligence services caution the benign name may disrupt our ability to think about what they do and how they operate.
Background
Mali gained independence from the French in 1960. Since that time it has known years of draught, economic instability, and authoritarian rule. But independence from colonial rule did not bring peace or security. The country’s first democratic election didn’t come until 32 years after its independence, Mali has since experienced two more government toppling coups. Excluding the short-term interim leaders, the country has had only one president that has not been forced from office at gunpoint.
An Easy Explanation
In several former African colonies, the military was used to suppress the indigenous population and protect the ruling white colonialists. When these countries attained independence, the ruling local political elite used the security forces in the same way. The difference in Mali is that security forces were created in 1960 after independence. Considering the country had no external foes, the military was meant to guarantee its internal peace and security. Unfortunately, the political involvement of the military has usurped the powers of the state, and created an intolerable situation in one of the world’s poorest countries.
Slow But Sure Infiltration
Mali has stubbornly resisted pressure from the EU and the United States to develop a timetable for the restoration of civilian rule. On the other hand, Russia has been playing the long game with Mali. It began with disinformation campaigns that were instrumental in stirring protests that removed the democratically elected president, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, in 2020.
Making Friends
These disinformation campaigns were anti-French and pro-Russian. Borrowing from the Syrian play book, the Russians propped up isolated leaders while they fueled the crisis. These leaders and those around them were indebted to the Kremlin. Goita, the head of the current military junta is one such leader.
Jihadists A Persistent Danger
The instability in Mali has also left it vulnerable to radical Islamic insurgents. Russia has taken advantage of that developing danger by portraying itself as a reliable ally against jihadists. Remember Mali is not the first African country to welcome the Wagner Group. The group has been active recently in Libya, Sudan, and the Central African Republic. Considering the political situation in Mali and the associated uncertainty, the country is ripe for exploitation.
Record, Not So Hot
Truth be told, there is no guarantee that the Wagner Group can make any headway against the insurgents in Mali. The private military group has experienced significant setbacks in recent history. Battlefield failures have led to a willingness to vacate quickly when there are numerous casualties. In 2019, for example, the Wagner Group withdrew from Mozambique after losses in the fight against the Ahlu Sunna Wa Jama, Islamic insurgency.
Natural Resources
Like the other ventures on the African continent, the Wagner Group appears to have been lured to Mozambique by it’s huge natural gas resources. If history is an example, the Wagner Group may cut and run if things become too hot. Private security companies are far from noble, so it stands to reason the Wagner Group has the same motivations for Mali that it did for Mozambique; milk the resources until the body count is unsustainable.
Who Benefits
Russia is happy to be gaining a foothold in a part of the continent where it has not previously had a presence. Goita took the Mali presidency by force. It is now clear, Goita is Russia’s man in Mali. He has clamped down on all political opposition and has now contracted with a foreign mercenary force that just happens to have ties to Vladimir Putin, to help him consolidate his hold on Mali and the region.
