The Electric Vehicle Revolution
Electric vehicles are the future, be ready. . .
The Electric Vehicle Revolution
“Adoption of a new technology, like EV’s (electric vehicles) may seem slow or look like it’s never going to happen, until it passes a threshold. . . .and then it just takes off.” *Reda Cherif
By D. S. Mitchell
Horse and Buggy Days
There is a growing understanding that gas and diesel-powered vehicles will soon join the horse and buggy and dial telephone. New studies support a rapid acceleration process and a gathering momentum of the coming EV tsunami. Surprising as it may seem, soothsayers predict that more than 90% of all passenger vehicles in the U.S., Canada, Europe and other wealthy industrialized countries will be EV by 2040. Some studies are even more bullish, predicting that by 2030, ninety percent of all U.S. vehicles will be EV. That is less than 9 years away.
A Big Culprit
One of the major sources of deadly air pollution, and a major factor in climate change, is transportation. In order to protect the climate and the health of our citizens it is imperative we modify the vehicles on our roads. A few years ago, transportation edged out power plants as the leading source of carbon emissions. We can end this catastrophe. Sources tell us a rapid shift to electric vehicles can cut more than 800 million tons of CO2 emissions every year by 2040, and cumulative reductions will reach 16.2 billion tons by 2050.
New Technology
The transition is going to happen fast because EV’s are better than gas vehicles. There is less maintenance, lower operating costs, and more power. A big factor in boosting sales of EV’s is that production costs are also coming down. The cost of an EV battery has dropped 86% in the last 10 years. In spite of chip shortages and COVID-19 challenges, Ford Motor Co. has been showing profits throughout 2021. Ford announced that its F-150 Lightening electric pickup has generated over 120,000 pre-orders since it was unveiled to great fanfare in May.
Big Vehicle Challenges and Changes
For trucks and buses battery science has come a long way. Big vehicles require big batteries, as much as 10x’s the size of a car battery, in order to do their job, which is to work 7 days a week, often 10-12 hours each of those days. Now that there is the technology manufactures are stepping up and embracing it. The Detroit Diesel announced it is intending to stop production on several diesel engines and increase future investment in EV’s.
EV Promises Lower Air Pollution
Despite the bad news on so many U.S. environmental fronts there is good news in the automobile industry. Automobile manufacturer’s world-wide are committing to the EV. They see the handwriting on the wall. The governments of Europe, China, and India are committed to reducing air pollution. Part of that vision will be enabled by electric vehicles. The mass acceptance of the EV will consequently cut the production of fossil fuels and their consumption. Perhaps that is the reason coal, and gas producers are in such a hurry to mine and pump fuel reserves while they still have an opportunity. Because they, more than any other industry, recognizes the world is changing.
Rethinking Transportation
*Tony Seba, a world recognized lecturer and Stanford economist believes the EV revolution could come as fast as the 2020’s, and it will show a changing urban environment. Seba and others project that 95% of all passenger miles will be in autonomous electric vehicles by 2030. Seba projections are based on sharply falling battery costs and the fact that EV are easier to manufacture and maintain-only 20 moving parts, versus 2000 for gasoline or diesel vehicles. Furthermore, Seba believes that the majority of vehicles will be owned by transportation companies, not people.
Driverless Future
Commercial fleets are clamoring for EV’s, especially self-driving ones. Eliminating drivers will generate enormous savings for UPS, FedEx, Amazon, Uber and Lyft. All over the country, in Pittsburgh, Phoenix and Boston and world-wide, in Singapore, Dubai, and China, self-driving taxis and commercial vehicles are being tested.
EV’s
Cost is what will remake transportation in America, according to most experts. EV’s are four times more energy-efficient than their gas counterparts. Cheaper to fuel and autonomous makes it even better. According to AAA, owning and operating a gas-powered vehicle costs close to $10,000 per year when only driven 15,ooo miles. As a reminder, that vehicle spends 95% of its time parked! Not a particularly wise use of a family’s dwindling income.
The Autonomous EV
Experts expect with the autonomous EV we will see a reduction of at least 200 million passenger cars on American highways by 2030. Instead of spending that $10,000 on transportation a family will spend around $1,000, because instead of owning a car, the citizen will have access to millions of self-driving vehicles that can be accessed by anyone with a phone app and they will be able to go anywhere for pennies vs dollars.
The Race is On
EV’s are at the forefront of an emerging transportation evolution. World automakers are now embracing the electric vehicle. Big companies are accepting the new future. Sweden’s Volvo Car Group has pledged to be producing only electrified models, hybrids and fully battery-powered, by 2021. VW has committed to becoming the world leader in electrical vehicles by 2025. Jaguar and Land Rover will convert to all-electric in 2021.
Banning Gas and Diesel Fueled Vehicles
It isn’t just auto manufacturer’s. Governments are joining in. Norway intends to ban fossil fuel consuming cars and vans by 2025. The U.K., Netherlands, and France have committed to end fossil fueled vehicles by 2040. Germany is studying the matter, but is expected to enact a similar ban. China, the world’s largest car market announced it too will ban gasoline and diesel vehicles, a target date for the ban as yet, unknown. Chinese consumers have more than 40 different electrical vehicles available, most are built by Chinese companies. India expects the market to naturally shift to EV by 2030-even if there is no government intervention because they are cleaner, quieter, longer-lasting and will cost less. The US auto makers will need to get on board the EV revolution, or they will be left behind.
Expected Benefits
A massive switch to EV’s could help clean the air, slow the pace of climate disruption and over time end the era of the internal fossil fuel burning combustion engine. Of the one billion cars registered on the roads worldwide, only two million are EV. One million of the two million EV’s are in China. If EV’s hit that desired threshold and are like the car to the horse and buggy it could cut oil use by 21 million barrels a day and cut CO2 emissions by 3.2 billion tons a year. That is equal to 60% of all current U.S. emissions. The transfer from horse to car happened in a period of 10-12 years. That early 20th century transition faced many more hurdles than going from a gas-powered vehicle to an EV. Or, look at the cell phone take over of American communication.
Choosing Green
Corporate polluters like big oil, and multi-national conglomerates like Koch Industries are known to have spread misinformation about EV. These companies have worked over the years, behind the scenes to under mine the acceptance of the EV. Their actions are understandable given that a switch to electric vehicles will lead to less oil use and substantially less profit. However, there is a forming consensus that we must change course in a big way, and the world is closing its ears to the misinformation and propaganda of the polluters and profiteers.
Serious Questions Remain
What about the minerals needed for batteries? There have been news reports about the environmental damage caused by mining. Such real concerns must be addressed. But it is important to understand that with the current battery situation, Ev’s still have a lower total life cycle footprint than gas powered vehicles. It will take work to create a clean supply chain for batteries, just like we want for all products. We should have supplier responsibility requirements that protect the environment, human rights and worker’s rights. Recapturing and reusing a recycling priority. We must invest in research for new battery technologies. Researchers are already looking at different battery chemistries that minimize the requirements for certain elements.
Sources:
Jim Motavalli, EDF Solutions (Vol #49 Fall 2018)
Stephen Leahy, Today magazine 9/13/2017
*Reda Cherif, International Monetary Fund
*Tony Seba, Stanford economist
Shanti Menon, EDF Solutions (Special Report, Summer 2021)
U.S. Highway Department
U.S. Census Bureau
