UNDERSTANDING BREXIT:
OR MAYBE NOT
By Trevor K. McNeil & D.S. Mitchell
A Bit Of History
If Americans are to understand Brexit we need to fill in a bit of history. So, here we go. The European Union is made up of 28 countries, including the UK. It covers over 1,800,000 square miles with a population of over 515,000,000.
Alternative To War
The EU was originally developed as a means to thwart war. As a reminder, the continent had been the powder keg that launched two world wars within 25 years in the early part of the twentieth century. After WWII a consensus developed that if countries worked together and were inter-dependent trading partners there would be less chance of another world war.
From A Small Start
You’re doing great, just hang in there. Because, understanding Brexit will take at least a couple more paragraphs. The European Union (EU) can directly trace its origins to the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) and the European Economic Community (EEC/Common Market) formed in 1951 by Belgium, France, West Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. It was another 22 years before the UK joined the then European Economic Community on January 1, 1973 with Denmark and Ireland. Since then the European Union has nearly tripled in size, and for the most part flourished.
A Single Market
In the United States we are familiar with NAFTA. NAFTA is not like the EU. Understanding Brexit is more complicated than what we here in the U.S. are familiar with. Each country choosing to join the EU pays an entry fee. After that first fee there are annual fees based primarily on each country’s national GDP. In return, they become members of a team who gain special advantages by working together. This includes being part of a “single market”. In other words, the countries within the union can trade without tariffs or duties with one another and people can move around freely, as if the “union” was actually just one big country.
Four Principles of Freedom
Whoa. That’s definitely different from what NAFTA does. In fact, the European Union is based on Four Principles of Freedom; the free movement of goods, services, people and money. Interestingly, the EU has its own parliament headquartered in Strasbourg, France. Indeed, laws are passed by its parliament and it has its own currency (the Euro). The UK unlike many of the other member states upon its entrance into the union chose to stick to its own pound and pence monetary system.
Growing Dissatisfaction
Understanding what the EU is, and what it is not, is important in developing a basic understanding of Brexit and how it came about. Growing dissatisfaction with membership in the European Union has grown over the years in Britain. On June 23, 2016, the UK held an election (referendum) to decide if the UK should stay in the European Union or leave it. More than 30 million votes were cast in the election. The Exit contingent won by 51.9% to 48.1%. That’s a pretty significant difference, nearly 4% voted to leave the European Union. Brexit (British exit) was the new shortcut word coined to describe the determined path forward.
David Cameron Loses
The 48.1% that voted to continue with the EU, included former Conservative Party Prime Minister David Cameron. Most of EU supporters believed that belonging to the 28 country community was better than going it alone in an increasingly competitive world market. The idea that this single market increased trade between countries, created jobs and lowered prices still seemed relevant and necessary. It was their core belief that it was easier and better to do business within their established trading group than depend on a new and uncertain trading alliance.
The Winners Saw It Differently
The 51.9% that voted to leave the EU saw it differently. Because the EU Parliament decides on many rules and standards that European Union member countries must follow, many in Britain believed that the UK was losing its self-determination; in other words losing control over its own affairs and laws. The UK pays billions of pounds in membership fees to the EU, before rebates, each year. Many of the Brexit voters felt they were not getting a significant return on that monumental expenditure to stay in the European Union.
Immigration A Core Matter
But, understanding Brexit goes deeper. In fact many would say xenophobia played a major part in the election. There is no doubt that many Brits are deeply concerned about immigration and the movement of foreigners into their country.
Free Movement Rule
In fact, there are many that would say that the deep concern over immigration fueled the victory for the Exiters. They see many people moving from poorer countries to richer countries, including Britain. This movement from poor countries to rich fueled fears of the “free movement rule”; which allows people in the EU to move to any other EU country without any special permission, or even a visa.
Exaggeration And Outright Lies
This issue was paramount with many Brexit voters. Many experts, looking back on the vote, now feel that the fear of foreigners was manipulated and encouraged by a certain group of political operatives. Some now legitimately question how informed the voters were at the time of the referendum. Many of the opinions about the European Union and the “rules” they were putting on Britain and how much it costs, were re-enforced by politicians such as Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. In fact, many believe the vote was flawed by exaggeration, manipulation and in some cases, outright lies by those with an anti-immigrant philosophy.
A New Prime Minister
Once the Brexit vote count was in, Prime Minister David Cameron resigned. As a result, Theresa May was then elected Conservative Party leader. The Conservative Party currently holds the majority of seats in Parliament, and as such Theresa May became the new Prime Minister.
Article 50
Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon gives any EU member the right to quit unilaterally and outlines the process. They have two years to negotiate the exit. On March 29, 2017, Theresa May triggered Article 50. She in effect gave formal notification to the European Council that the UK planned to leave the European Union. Once Theresa May activated Article 50 she was required to get an agreement from the UK Parliament (House of Commons and the House of Lords) on her proposed Brexit deal. Once the parliament approval was received the EU and UK entered into talks to agree on the terms of the divorce. This part is a complicated process since the other 27 countries’ parliaments have to agree with the deal.
Roots of A Dilemma
Some are now unabashedly calling the effort to remove Britain from the EU as the traveling Brexit shit-show. It certainly is getting to the point where it is not funny anymore. What started out with a whiff of genuine danger and suspense has dragged on for over two years with no end, in sight to the Brexit negotiations. Though, to be fair, the updated Brexit crisis did not come out of nowhere.
Extenuating Circumstances
As previously mentioned, the United Kingdom only joined in the European Economic Community, the precursor to the modern European Union, in 1973. Many people were skeptical about the arrangement from the beginning. Not least the National Front political party. The NF is a far-right, populist, anti-immigration, hard “Eurosketptic” political party. The British National Party splintered from the NF in 1967.
Who Are The BNP’ers
Now, you Yanks stay with me. It might get a bit mucky from here on. Because understanding Brexit you must understand the British political parties. The BNP is “a far-right fascist political party in the UK. It is a minor party, it has no elected representatives at any level of UK government”(Wikipedia).
BNP And UKIP
Fundamental to the BNP is the advocacy of “firm but voluntary incentives for immigrants and their descendants to return home”. Similar sentiments have been the drum beat of Nigel Farage and the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) for years. The UKIP is basically a single-issue fringe party. But understanding these converging fears and those pushing those fears is vital when trying to understand Brexit. The immigration crisis brought on by the civil war in Syria proved to be ammunition that the Brexit supporters used to their advantage.
A Conflict of Interest
A factor making understanding Brexit, even more complex is the fact that until the results of the referendum were tallied, British Prime Minister Theresa May, was opposed to Brexit. Putting her in a complicated position as the recently sworn in Prime Minister. Even after the controversial triggering of Article 50. The greatest opposition to May’s Brexit plan has come from the more extreme members of the British Conservative party. Particularly former mayor of London and former Foreign Secretary, American born, Boris Johnson.
The Sleeping Bear
Both the Conservative Party and the Labour Party (yes, the U is supposed to be there), are voicing concerns that a full withdrawal from the European Union could spark the tinder-box of Northern Ireland. The border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland going from “soft” to “hard” as a result of Brexit. This is still an issue in the Brexit negotiations, despite the dismissiveness of some members of the Conservative party who point out that neither the Exiters nor the Remainders want a hard border; and glibly asking who would enforce such a “hard border.”
Trouble Understanding Brexit Is Widespread
Such easy dismissal ignores the men (and women according to photo-documentation) in balaclavas with machine-guns who caused the British government so much bother for so long. It is a myth that the Republican sentiment has been defeated on the Emerald Isle. There are still no less than four active Republican groups in Northern Ireland to this very day, including the 32 County Sovereignty Movement who want to unite the six Northern counties of Northern Ireland with the Republic of Ireland.
N.I.R.A.
The New Irish Republican Army (N.I.R.A.) mostly an amalgam of older splinter groups like the Provisional I.R.A. infamous for keeping up aggressions even after the ceasefire. Na Fianna Eireann was founded in 1909 as the Youth Wing of the Feinian Brotherhood. In 2008 the Republican Action Against Drugs (R.A.A.D.) was organized. This is a vigilante group notorious for brutally knee-capping suspected drug-dealers and suspected Loyalists alike. Each of these groups see the Brexit shit-show as the excuse they have waited for.
The Plot Thickens
An issue compounded by the fact that Theresa May won election to her first official term as Prime Minister after finishing Cameron’s term, and getting a mandate for the Brexit negotiations, with support from the Democratic Unionist Party. A socially and economically conservative fringe party in Northern Ireland incapable of understanding Brexit and its implications, who are also staunchly anti-Republican and hard Euroskeptic.
Short Memories
Basically the DUP are isolationists and are philosophically and politically against the idea of a united Europe. They have been one of the strongest opponents of the Republican cause since they formed in the throes of the revived Irish Civil War in 1971. Further evidence that Theresa May is having a hard time understanding Brexit. A fact likely to win her no friends either among the Irish Republicans or most of the current member nations of the European Union.
Tilted Odds
The DUP’s clearly anti-European sentiment, has done some damage to May’s apparently good faith attempt to negotiate a conciliatory Brexit deal. Many of the EU member nations having the opposite attitude to the likes of Johnson and Farage, being somewhat miffed that Brexit is happening at all.
Nope
The situation got so bad among those not understanding Brexit that there have been three votes on the proposed Brexit deal in the British Parliament, all three of them ending in No votes. Those who want a hard Brexit and those who don’t want Brexit finally finding something they can agree on. At one point Theresa May made an offer saying that if the Parliament voted for the proposed Brexit deal she will resign as Prime Minister. Yanis Varousfakis, former Greek Finance Minister offered the following comment on the Brexit deal, “a deal that a nation signs only after having been defeated at war”.
Trick Or Treat
Theresa May recently said, “The UK should have left the EU by now.” Given the abject failure of all sides in understanding Brexit and the failure to come up with a deal for the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union has led to another extension.
Hob Nobbin’ With Goblins
Interestingly this new date exceeds the two-year limit identified in Article 50. The date the UK was to leave the European Union should have been no later than April 12, 2019, that date has now been postponed until October 31, 2019. That’s right, Halloween. As observers, we wonder quietly if there is any significance to that date. Will it be Trick, or Treat, for the harried Prime Minister.
Brexit Date Extended
While discussions are going on the UK will abide by all EU laws. The question is will Theresa May be able to hold on to the Prime Minister’s job. In fact she has even stated that she understands her credibility is on the line and is ready to resign if she fails in her mission. Many suspect the Brexit disaster will send a new Prime Minister to fight the battle, some worry that it might be iconoclast, Boris Johnson. But like everything else surrounding the Brexit issue, only time will tell.
